After a beautiful sunny Saturday, temperatures are expected to drop quickly in the early hours Sunday morning, and frozen precipitation will fall on North Texas. North Texas is under a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY Sunday from 3 a.m. to 9 p.m.
Most of the region will likely see some freezing rain and/or sleet Sunday and Sunday evening. Accumulations are more likely north and northwest of a line from Killeen to Palestine. Total ice accumulations are expected to be less than a tenth of an inch. Total sleet accumulations are expected to be less than half an inch. Sleet accumulations closer to half an inch are more likely to occur within isolated afternoon thunderstorms. The highest accumulations within the region are expected in areas east and northeast of a Gainesville to Canton line. If higher accumulations are expected in this area, a winter storm warning may be needed.
The greatest impacts due to sleet and ice on Sunday will occur north of a Breckenridge to DFW to Emory line. Hazardous travel conditions are expected in this area. Many bridges, overpasses, and secondary roads will likely be icy and some main roads may also become icy. In addition, any sleet will also result in hazardous road conditions. South of this area but north of a Comanche to Palestine line, ice and sleet will likely cause bridges and overpasses to ice. Roadways will largely remain free of ice, but slick spots will likely still form on roadways. Travel could become hazardous. Across our far southern counties, some freezing rain or sleet may occur that could result in slick spots on bridges and overpasses. Roadways are expected to remain free of ice.
There is uncertainty about the extent of Sunday's winter weather and the potential impacts. Here is what we know as well as some unknowns that could alter the eventual impacts.
An arctic cold front will move through North and Central Texas on Sunday with temperatures falling rapidly behind the front. The front should move through the DFW metroplex before daybreak, through Waco before mid morning, and through Killeen and Temple before 11 AM.
This morning, not long after I posted our Sunday Morning Update, the weather models, which had been predicting a possible sleet event for next weekend began to change. I thought it worthwhile to share the National Weather Service's latest prediction:
After a warm week with highs in the 60s and 70s, a strong cold front will move through Friday and bring temperatures down into the 30s and 40s next weekend. Meanwhile, an upper level low will move in from the west and bring a good chance of rain to the region. At this time, it appears that all precipitation will remain rain over North Texas, with the best potential for wintry precipitation to the northwest of the region where it will be a little colder.
So it will still be cold, and it will be wet, so it's still not a bad idea to be prepared in general and try to get the shopping done before the weekend.
The National Weather Service is forecasting some winter weather from today through the weekend:
"Rain will develop across the region today. Temperatures will slowly fall throughout the day. Afternoon highs will be below freezing in the Graham to Gainesville areas where freezing rain will occur. To the southeast, the rain may change over to freezing before sunset along and northwest of an Eastland to DFW to Paris line. North winds will make temperatures feel 10 to 15 degrees colder. Some icing may start to develop on bridges and other elevated surfaces across the northwest by late afternoon."
"The change over from rain to freezing rain will continue to move south this evening as temperatures cool below freezing. Ice will accumulate on trees, power lines and other elevated surfaces along and north of a Goldthwaite to Paris line. Ice will likely accumulate on roads northwest of a line from Comanche to Bonham during the evening."
Conditions will deteriorate overnight as temperatures continue to fall. The freezing line will approach a Palestine to Hearne line toward daybreak. Ice accumulations of 1/2 inch or more may occur from Wichita Falls to Granbury to north of Paris... including the DFW Metroplex. This will likely cause significant travel problems. Ice accumulations may result in damage to trees and downed power lines which could lead to power outages.
Prepare for Power Outages Because the power grid in Lewisville seems to be susceptible to outages in just about any weather, but freezing precipitation can be damaging to power lines, Lewisville residents should make preparations in case of prolonged power outages:
- Have firewood handy if you have a wood-burning fireplace. Make sure the flue is clean and serviceable.
- Have flashlights and batteries available. It is not safe to use candles for emergency lighting.
- Have a battery or crank-powered weather radio.
- Do not use heat-producing appliances like barbecue grills for indoor heat. These can start fires or expose you to carbon monoxide and kill you.
- Add the electric outage reporting number to your cell phone right now: Texas New Mexico Power (TNMP): 888-866-7456. CoServ: 800-274-4014
These are the outage reporting numbers where you can report an outage or get status on restoration.
Other preparations: - Have a full tank of gas in the car - Carry sand or cat litter with you in the car in case you get stuck and need traction. - Keep your cell phone charged - Carry emergency supplies in your vehicle, if you must travel: blankets, water, jumper cables, tow rope, flashlight, etc. - Ensure before the event that you have plenty of any prescription medicines you might need. - When temperatures are freezing, let your faucets drip to keep the pipes from freezing. - Make sure your pets have adequate shelter and warmth.
The rain will start for North Texas Tuesday morning. Starting at a 20% percent chance of rain as early as 6am and the chances for rain going up throughout the day. The rain won't start to taper off until Wednesday night. All I can say about that is bring your umbrella, rain coat and rain boots Tuesday and Wednesday. It's going to be a soaker. But I think we can all agree that we need the rain.
As far as severe weather goes, that part of the storm should stay well to our south and east. Our main threat here in Lewisville, will be possible flooding. We are expected to receive 2"-3" over the next 48 hours.
A weak cold front will arrive sometime Monday. Our rain chances are 10%-30% depending on the time of day the front arrives and also on the moisture in the air in front of the system. Thanksgiving night will be our next rain chance after that. But even that as of right now is only a 20% chance. For you Black Friday "Go Hards" you will need a warm jacket while waiting in those lines outside. Good news is that you will be able to ditch those clothing layers by noon, for the high will get up to the low 70s.
Today High 68 Winds from the ENE at 5 to 10 mph.
Tonight Low 39 with winds less than 5 mph.
Saturday High 68F. Winds from the SE at 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday Mostly cloudy. High of 70F. Winds from the SE at 5 to 10 mph.
Have ya'll missed me? I'm back now and hopefully here to stay. I tell ya, being without internet and TV for almost 2 weeks was hard. I totally missed Hurricane Sandy and for that I'm sorry. I truly hope that all of your loved ones on the East Coast came out unscathed.
This week will be gorgeous!! If you are waking up early to stand in line to vote, bring a jacket because it will be chilly but you wont need that jacket by noon. 70s/80s during the days and 40s/50s at night. Almost perfect for me. The fun stuff will happen late this weekend. Possible chasing potential for me.
The graphics below were provided by The National Weather service. The really awesome lighting photo is provided by me. Taken this past Saturday night, just outside of Sunnyvale. I don't know of any others that where on this storm, because all the chasers I know where up in Oklahoma for the National Weather Festival. I swear I'm going next year. HA
"A cold front will move across North Texas today and bring a northwest wind in the 15 to 25 mph range with some gusts to 30 mph. The front will reach the northwest portion of North Texas around midday and move through the entire region by 8 PM. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected behind the front this afternoon in the northwest sections where relative humidities will fall below 30 percent. A few showers may accompany the cold front across the northeast sections of North Texas this afternoon." US National Weather Service in Ft Worth
Wednesday Partly cloudy. High of 86F. Breezy. Winds from the SW at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph shifting to the WNW in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night Partly cloudy in the evening, then clear. Low of 48F. Winds from the North at 5 to 20 mph shifting to the WSW after midnight.
Thursday Clear. High of 79F. Winds from the NW at 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday Night Clear. Low of 50F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 10 mph shifting to the SW after midnight.
Friday Clear. High of 79F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 10 mph.
Friday Night Clear. Low of 52F. Winds from the South at 5 to 10 mph.
"Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of North Texas Saturday afternoon through Saturday night as an upper level trough progresses eastward through the Central and Southern Plains, and a Pacific cold front pushes southeastward into the area. The best chances for severe storms will be over the west and northwest counties late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. The front will continue southeastward with rain chances ending from northwest to southeast on Sunday." US National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
I was holding off on posting the forecast. NWS and the SPC always updates around 1:00 am and I want to give ya'll the latest.
This storm system has produced at least 2 confirmed tornadoes today in the Texas Panhandle today, and numerous reports of high winds and large hail.
The Tor:Con index number for us today is still at a 3. Our Thunderstorm chances start going up around 4:00pm at 20% then jump up to a 70% chance after midnight. With these times, I might actually get to go out and chase some lightning. HA
Saturday Overcast in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain. High of 86F. Breezy. Winds from the South at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20%.
Saturday Night Partly cloudy with thunderstorms and rain showers, then a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain after midnight. Low of 64F. Breezy. Winds from the South at 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 0.4 in. possible.
Sunday Clear. High of 84F. Winds from the West at 5 to 10 mph shifting to the NNW in the afternoon.
By Erin Floyd What is Tor:Con? Click on the link to find out from The Weather Channel's Severe Weather Expert, Dr. Greg Forbes.
8+ Very high probability of a tornado 6 - High probability of a tornado 4 - Moderate chance of a tornado nearby, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible 2 - Low chance of a tornado, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible 0 - Near-zero chance of a tornado or a severe thunderstorm
As of right now, our Tor:Con index is a 3 for Saturday, October 14.
Update: As I was putting this together, the Tor:Con index changed a bit. TX extreme north-central – 3 TX rest of central - 1 to 2
I've only seen the Tor:Con Index hit 10 twice, Alabama April, 2011 and Kentucky March, 2012.
Almost forgot about the forecast... Wednesday Night Partly cloudy with a chance of rain after midnight. Low of 72F. Winds from the SE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.
Thursday Partly cloudy with a chance of rain. High of 84F. Winds from the South at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.
Thursday Night Partly cloudy. Low of 66F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 15 mph.
Friday Mostly cloudy in the morning, then clear. High of 84F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 15 mph.
Friday Night Partly cloudy in the evening, then clear. Low of 68F. Winds from the SSE at 10 to 15 mph.
By Erin Floyd The forecast, this time is pretty generic. I'm really paying attention to Friday and Saturday. It looks like severe weather will be hop scotching through the Southern and Central Plains. As of right now, the weather will kick off Friday in The Panhandle, and end up in MS River Valley on Saturday. So where do we stand in all of this? Not sure yet. The weather personalities on TV are only calling for 20-30% chance of scattered thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday. I'd like to be in Amarillo on Friday to chase for sure, but not sure if I'll get a sitter for a few hours in the evening. Here's your forecast for tonight through Thursday. Enjoy these next few days. They are going to be nice even with the mood swings of Mother Nature. The cold front will arrive Wednesday night/ Thursday morning, then stall. Then the warm front will come through and keep us in the 80s through the weekend.
Tuesday Night Partly cloudy. Low of 59F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.
Wednesday Partly cloudy with a chance of rain. High of 82F. Winds from the NE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.
Wednesday Night Partly cloudy with a chance of rain after midnight. Low of 72F. Winds from the ESE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.
Thursday Partly cloudy with a chance of rain. High of 86F. Winds from the South at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.
Thursday Night Partly cloudy in the evening, then clear. Low of 64F. Winds from the South at 5 to 15 mph.