We have had some beautiful sunny days recently, but it looks like an upper-level low will bring rain into the region Tuesday night through Wednesday, and more rain is expected Thursday through the weekend.
Here's the latest National Weather Service update: "An upper level low that is over Mexican state of Chihuahua (southwest of the Big Bend) will move northeast across West Texas tonight and into eastern Oklahoma by Wednesday Night. This system will bring a good chance of rain to the region overnight tonight through Wednesday. Another upper level low that is currently off the coast of Baja California will move slowly east bringing rain chances to Texas Thursday through the weekend."
For Tuesday night, it's a 60 percent chance of rain, with isolated thunderstorms. Wednesday there is a 20% chance of showers, with highs in the lower 70s. Thursday night, showers are likely with rain chances at 60%. Rain chances remain in the forecast through Saturday.
The National Weather Service has an update on tonight's winter storm:
"Radar shows the upper level disturbance that will bring the main round of mixed wintry precipitation is now moving through West Texas. This system will move rapidly northeast during the next few hours with conditions deteriorating across North Central Texas during the evening and overnight hours. At this time, it appears that the highest accumulation of sleet and snow with amounts of 2 to 3 inches will set up in a band roughly from Comanche to Cleburne to Terrell to Sulphur Springs. Just outside of this band an inch of sleet and snow is likely as well. Thus the highest amounts are expected to impact the southeastern parts of the greater DFW Metroplex and may stay just north of the Waco/Temple/Killeen areas. We will continue to monitor trends in this winter storm during the next several hours and will update you as the event unfolds."
The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning for Wednesday, March 4th, at 3 p.m. to Thursday, March 5th, 12:00 p.m.. The advisory is for numerous North Texas Counties, including Denton, Tarrant, Dallas, and Collin. We think the impacts will probably start after 4 p.m. for Lewisville.
This morning, the forecast calls for rain, with high temperatures in the upper 40s. Temperatures fall through the day, and frozen precipitation begins in the afternoon when temps are in the low 30s. Temps bottom out in the mid to upper 20s tonight. Precipitation chances are near 100%. Winds are from the North, increasing through the day to 15-20 mph.
Accumulations of 1/10 to 1/4 inch of ice are possible, then 2 - 4 inches of sleet and snow. Hazardous travel conditions are expected.
Here is a National Weather Service update from Wednesday Morning regarding timing: A round of rain will accompany the passage of a cold front today, moving into East Texas this evening. Late this afternoon, an area of freezing and sleet will approach from the west. Thunder may accompany the sleet showers, dramatically increasing amounts in some locations. The heaviest activity will impact the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex mid to late evening. Snow will be possible behind the heaviest activity before the precipitation tapers off. Total accumulations of ice, sleet, and snow are expected to exceed 2 inches in areas northwest of the Metroplex, with generally under an inch of accumulation southeast of Dallas/Fort Worth.
The following are National Weather Service statements on timing and impact: (From Tuesday) An arctic front will sweep across the region on Wednesday and a wintry mix is expected across the area Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of and immediately behind the cold front with a change over to a mix of freezing rain and sleet occurring several hours behind the front. This graphic depicts our best estimate of when the wintry mix will begin in each highlighted area. We will continue to refine the timing of the transition over the next 18 hours so check back for updates. The wintry mix will continue into the overnight hours; ending Thursday morning.
A strong cold front is expected to move southeast across North and Central Texas tomorrow. As cold air continues to build in, precipitation is expected to develop well behind the front. As rain continues with cold air getting deeper through Wednesday and into Wednesday night, rain is expected to change over to freezing rain, and then sleet. A brief change over to snow is possible before precipitation comes to an end Thursday morning.
The heaviest amounts of ice and sleet are expected to fall in the purple regions in the graphic, including areas southeast of a line from Breckenridge to Sherman, but northwest of a line from Hamilton to Sulphur Springs. Hazardous driving conditions are expected to develop in these areas Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
For locations shaded in yellow, impacts are expected for most locations, however the amount of sleet and ice accumulations are expected to be less than in the purple areas, and therefore the impacts to roads are expected to be slightly less hazardous.
For locations shaded in blue, impacts are expected to remain localized in nature, mainly due to warmer ground temperatures. Impacts here are most likely to be relegated to bridges and overpasses, and this includes locations generally along and southeast of a line from Cameron to Palestine. In general these impacts represent a shift to the northwest of where the greatest impacts were expected to occur yesterday at this time.
Here is the latest from the National Weather Service on weather over the next few days.
Today: Cloudy and cool conditions will continue today with high temperatures ranging from the upper 30s near the Red River to the upper 40s over the southern and southeastern counties. Rain chances will increase from northwest to southeast across the region. The forecast for us calls for a 30% chance of rain with a high around 40 and winds from 5 to 10mph.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly sunny. A 40 percent chance of showers. Warmer. Highs in the mid 60s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Tuesday Night will be mostly cloudy with showers likely and isolated thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 30s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Wednesday: A strong cold front will move through the region on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday and Tuesday night ahead of the front, but the rain will transition to a wintry mix of snow and sleet behind the front. A wintry mix will be possible Wednesday through Thursday morning with accumulations of sleet and/or snow expected, but we do not know how much yet. Keep up with the forecast for the latest on the type of wintry mix expected, timing, and amounts.
The National Weather Service has issued a WINTER STORM WARNING for 10 North Texas counties, including Denton County, effective Sunday from 6 p.m. - Monday 6 p.m.
Mainly sleet, with some freezing rain is expected Sunday evening through Monday. Accumulations of around 1 inch of sleet, with locally higher amounts of 1.5 inches are expected through Monday, with some light ice accumulation from freezing rain.
Temperatures fall below freezing late Sunday afternoon, and into the mid 20s on Sunday night. Highs on Monday will remain in the 20's. The main impact is sleet accumulation, which will make travel dangerous. Bridges will accumulate sleet and ice first, with main roads also accumulating sleet during this time. Temperatures will not rise above freezing on Monday.
It is recommended that residents of the affected areas avoid travel unless it is an emergency, and keep supplies in the vehicle such as a blanket, flashlight and food, in case you become stranded.
Weather Service Update - As of Sunday Night: A significant winter storm is likely for parts of North Central Texas late Sunday and Monday. The worst conditions are expected in areas northwest of the DFW Metroplex where a winter storm warning has been issued for around an inch of sleet. Conditions will begin to deteriorate there as early as Sunday evening. This will result in dangerous or impossible travel conditions in that region by Monday morning. Just to the southeast, including the DFW Metroplex, a winter storm warning has also been issued for around a half inch of sleet. Most of the sleet will hold off until early Monday morning, but roads will become ice covered and hazardous on Monday. Farther to the southeast, including Waco, Corsicana, Terrell, and Paris, a winter storm watch remains in effect. Precipitation amounts are expected to be less in this area, but ice accumulation from sleet and freezing rain will still create travel difficulties and sporadic power outages. This portion of the watch may be upgraded to an advisory or a warning as the event nears, so stay abreast of the latest weather information.
As the first band of precipitation exits the region to the east. The second short wave trough is moving into West Texas and resulting in a new area of precipitation near Midland as of 1040 PM. This precipitation...mainly in the form of sleet...should increase in coverage as it moves into western North Texas during the overnight hours.
It's a gorgeous day Saturday in Lewisville, and a great time to go for a walk or take your dog to the dog park. Highs today will be in the mid 70s with southwest winds 5-10 mph. But big changes are in store for the coming week, with freezing temps on Sunday, and possible snow on Tuesday. Here are the updates from the National Weather Service:
A strong cold front will slowly move through the area from the northeast on Sunday. Clouds and showers will develop behind the front with afternoon temperatures only in the 40s and 50s. Ahead of the front, high temperatures will be around 70 degrees. Temperatures will get colder over the entire area Sunday night with rain becoming widespread. Temperatures should fall below freezing in northern areas, which means freezing rain would result in light icing of elevated surfaces across the shaded area. There are currently no indications that this will be a significant winter storm event in Texas, but conditions will be worse farther north and east across Oklahoma and Arkansas where the air will be colder.
As the main upper level disturbance moves through the southern Plains early Tuesday...some light snow will be possible across much of North Texas. It's still a little too early to determine exact locations and amounts but surface temperatures are expected near or slightly above freezing. This should limit any accumulations during the morning hours. At this time...no significant impacts are expected across North Texas.
After a beautiful sunny Saturday, temperatures are expected to drop quickly in the early hours Sunday morning, and frozen precipitation will fall on North Texas. North Texas is under a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY Sunday from 3 a.m. to 9 p.m.
Most of the region will likely see some freezing rain and/or sleet Sunday and Sunday evening. Accumulations are more likely north and northwest of a line from Killeen to Palestine. Total ice accumulations are expected to be less than a tenth of an inch. Total sleet accumulations are expected to be less than half an inch. Sleet accumulations closer to half an inch are more likely to occur within isolated afternoon thunderstorms. The highest accumulations within the region are expected in areas east and northeast of a Gainesville to Canton line. If higher accumulations are expected in this area, a winter storm warning may be needed.
The greatest impacts due to sleet and ice on Sunday will occur north of a Breckenridge to DFW to Emory line. Hazardous travel conditions are expected in this area. Many bridges, overpasses, and secondary roads will likely be icy and some main roads may also become icy. In addition, any sleet will also result in hazardous road conditions. South of this area but north of a Comanche to Palestine line, ice and sleet will likely cause bridges and overpasses to ice. Roadways will largely remain free of ice, but slick spots will likely still form on roadways. Travel could become hazardous. Across our far southern counties, some freezing rain or sleet may occur that could result in slick spots on bridges and overpasses. Roadways are expected to remain free of ice.
There is uncertainty about the extent of Sunday's winter weather and the potential impacts. Here is what we know as well as some unknowns that could alter the eventual impacts.
An arctic cold front will move through North and Central Texas on Sunday with temperatures falling rapidly behind the front. The front should move through the DFW metroplex before daybreak, through Waco before mid morning, and through Killeen and Temple before 11 AM.
This morning, not long after I posted our Sunday Morning Update, the weather models, which had been predicting a possible sleet event for next weekend began to change. I thought it worthwhile to share the National Weather Service's latest prediction:
After a warm week with highs in the 60s and 70s, a strong cold front will move through Friday and bring temperatures down into the 30s and 40s next weekend. Meanwhile, an upper level low will move in from the west and bring a good chance of rain to the region. At this time, it appears that all precipitation will remain rain over North Texas, with the best potential for wintry precipitation to the northwest of the region where it will be a little colder.
So it will still be cold, and it will be wet, so it's still not a bad idea to be prepared in general and try to get the shopping done before the weekend.
The National Weather Service is forecasting some winter weather from today through the weekend:
"Rain will develop across the region today. Temperatures will slowly fall throughout the day. Afternoon highs will be below freezing in the Graham to Gainesville areas where freezing rain will occur. To the southeast, the rain may change over to freezing before sunset along and northwest of an Eastland to DFW to Paris line. North winds will make temperatures feel 10 to 15 degrees colder. Some icing may start to develop on bridges and other elevated surfaces across the northwest by late afternoon."
"The change over from rain to freezing rain will continue to move south this evening as temperatures cool below freezing. Ice will accumulate on trees, power lines and other elevated surfaces along and north of a Goldthwaite to Paris line. Ice will likely accumulate on roads northwest of a line from Comanche to Bonham during the evening."
Conditions will deteriorate overnight as temperatures continue to fall. The freezing line will approach a Palestine to Hearne line toward daybreak. Ice accumulations of 1/2 inch or more may occur from Wichita Falls to Granbury to north of Paris... including the DFW Metroplex. This will likely cause significant travel problems. Ice accumulations may result in damage to trees and downed power lines which could lead to power outages.
Prepare for Power Outages Because the power grid in Lewisville seems to be susceptible to outages in just about any weather, but freezing precipitation can be damaging to power lines, Lewisville residents should make preparations in case of prolonged power outages:
- Have firewood handy if you have a wood-burning fireplace. Make sure the flue is clean and serviceable.
- Have flashlights and batteries available. It is not safe to use candles for emergency lighting.
- Have a battery or crank-powered weather radio.
- Do not use heat-producing appliances like barbecue grills for indoor heat. These can start fires or expose you to carbon monoxide and kill you.
- Add the electric outage reporting number to your cell phone right now: Texas New Mexico Power (TNMP): 888-866-7456. CoServ: 800-274-4014
These are the outage reporting numbers where you can report an outage or get status on restoration.
Other preparations: - Have a full tank of gas in the car - Carry sand or cat litter with you in the car in case you get stuck and need traction. - Keep your cell phone charged - Carry emergency supplies in your vehicle, if you must travel: blankets, water, jumper cables, tow rope, flashlight, etc. - Ensure before the event that you have plenty of any prescription medicines you might need. - When temperatures are freezing, let your faucets drip to keep the pipes from freezing. - Make sure your pets have adequate shelter and warmth.
The rain will start for North Texas Tuesday morning. Starting at a 20% percent chance of rain as early as 6am and the chances for rain going up throughout the day. The rain won't start to taper off until Wednesday night. All I can say about that is bring your umbrella, rain coat and rain boots Tuesday and Wednesday. It's going to be a soaker. But I think we can all agree that we need the rain.
As far as severe weather goes, that part of the storm should stay well to our south and east. Our main threat here in Lewisville, will be possible flooding. We are expected to receive 2"-3" over the next 48 hours.