By Erin Floyd



Here comes the rain folks.

The rain will start for North Texas Tuesday morning. Starting at a 20% percent chance of rain as early as 6am and the chances for rain going up throughout the day. The rain won't start to taper off until Wednesday night. All I can say about that is bring your umbrella, rain coat and rain boots Tuesday and Wednesday. It's going to be a soaker. But I think we can all agree that we need the rain.

As far as severe weather goes, that part of the storm should stay well to our south and east. Our main threat here in Lewisville, will be possible flooding. We are expected to receive 2"-3" over the next 48 hours.

By Erin Floyd




A weak cold front will arrive sometime Monday. Our rain chances are 10%-30% depending on the time of day the front arrives and also on the moisture in the air in front of the system.
Thanksgiving night will be our next rain chance after that. But even that as of right now is only a 20% chance.
For you Black Friday "Go Hards" you will need a warm jacket while waiting in those lines outside. Good news is that you will be able to ditch those clothing layers by noon, for the high will get up to the low 70s.


Today
High 68 Winds from the ENE at 5 to 10 mph.


Tonight
Low 39 with winds less than 5 mph.

Saturday
High 68F. Winds from the SE at 5 to 10 mph.


Sunday
Mostly cloudy. High of 70F. Winds from the SE at 5 to 10 mph.

By Erin Floyd







Have ya'll missed me? I'm back now and hopefully here to stay. I tell ya, being without internet and TV for almost 2 weeks was hard. I totally missed Hurricane Sandy and for that I'm sorry. I truly hope that all of your loved ones on the East Coast came out unscathed.

This week will be gorgeous!! If you are waking up early to stand in line to vote, bring a jacket because it will be chilly but you wont need that jacket by noon. 70s/80s during the days and 40s/50s at night. Almost perfect for me. The fun stuff will happen late this weekend. Possible chasing potential for me.

The graphics below were provided by The National Weather service. The really awesome lighting photo is provided by me. Taken this past Saturday night, just outside of Sunnyvale. I don't know of any others that where on this storm, because all the chasers I know where up in Oklahoma for the National Weather Festival. I swear I'm going next year. HA

By Erin Floyd


"A cold front will move across North Texas today and bring a northwest wind in the 15 to 25 mph range with some gusts to 30 mph. The front will reach the northwest portion of North Texas around midday and move through the entire region by 8 PM. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected behind the front this afternoon in the northwest sections where relative humidities will fall below 30 percent. A few showers may accompany the cold front across the northeast sections of North Texas this afternoon." US National Weather Service in Ft Worth

Wednesday
Partly cloudy. High of 86F. Breezy. Winds from the SW at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph shifting to the WNW in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy in the evening, then clear. Low of 48F. Winds from the North at 5 to 20 mph shifting to the WSW after midnight.


Thursday
Clear. High of 79F. Winds from the NW at 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday Night
Clear. Low of 50F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 10 mph shifting to the SW after midnight.


Friday
Clear. High of 79F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 10 mph.

Friday Night
Clear. Low of 52F. Winds from the South at 5 to 10 mph.

What a gorgeous week!

By Erin Floyd





"Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of North Texas Saturday afternoon through Saturday night as an upper level trough progresses eastward through the Central and Southern Plains, and a Pacific cold front pushes southeastward into the area. The best chances for severe storms will be over the west and northwest counties late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. The front will continue southeastward with rain chances ending from northwest to southeast on Sunday." US National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas

I was holding off on posting the forecast. NWS and the SPC always updates around 1:00 am and I want to give ya'll the latest.

This storm system has produced at least 2 confirmed tornadoes today in the Texas Panhandle today, and numerous reports of high winds and large hail.

The Tor:Con index number for us today is still at a 3. Our Thunderstorm chances start going up around 4:00pm at 20% then jump up to a 70% chance after midnight. With these times, I might actually get to go out and chase some lightning. HA




Saturday
Overcast in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain. High of 86F. Breezy. Winds from the South at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

Saturday Night
Partly cloudy with thunderstorms and rain showers, then a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain after midnight. Low of 64F. Breezy. Winds from the South at 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 0.4 in. possible.

Sunday
Clear. High of 84F. Winds from the West at 5 to 10 mph shifting to the NNW in the afternoon.

By Erin Floyd
What is Tor:Con? Click on the link to find out from The Weather Channel's Severe Weather Expert, Dr. Greg Forbes.



8+ Very high probability of a tornado
6 - High probability of a tornado
4 - Moderate chance of a tornado nearby, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
2 - Low chance of a tornado, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
0 - Near-zero chance of a tornado or a severe thunderstorm

As of right now, our Tor:Con index is a 3 for Saturday, October 14.

Update: As I was putting this together, the Tor:Con index changed a bit.
TX extreme north-central – 3
TX rest of central - 1 to 2

I've only seen the Tor:Con Index hit 10 twice, Alabama April, 2011 and Kentucky March, 2012.

Almost forgot about the forecast...

Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy with a chance of rain after midnight. Low of 72F. Winds from the SE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

Thursday
Partly cloudy with a chance of rain. High of 84F. Winds from the South at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

Thursday Night
Partly cloudy. Low of 66F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 15 mph.

Friday
Mostly cloudy in the morning, then clear. High of 84F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 15 mph.

Friday Night
Partly cloudy in the evening, then clear. Low of 68F. Winds from the SSE at 10 to 15 mph.

By Erin Floyd

The forecast, this time is pretty generic. I'm really paying attention to Friday and Saturday. It looks like severe weather will be hop scotching through the Southern and Central Plains. As of right now, the weather will kick off Friday in The Panhandle, and end up in MS River Valley on Saturday. So where do we stand in all of this? Not sure yet. The weather personalities on TV are only calling for 20-30% chance of scattered thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday. I'd like to be in Amarillo on Friday to chase for sure, but not sure if I'll get a sitter for a few hours in the evening.
Here's your forecast for tonight through Thursday. Enjoy these next few days. They are going to be nice even with the mood swings of Mother Nature. The cold front will arrive Wednesday night/ Thursday morning, then stall. Then the warm front will come through and keep us in the 80s through the weekend.





Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy. Low of 59F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.


Wednesday
Partly cloudy with a chance of rain. High of 82F. Winds from the NE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.


Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy with a chance of rain after midnight. Low of 72F. Winds from the ESE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

Thursday
Partly cloudy with a chance of rain. High of 86F. Winds from the South at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.


Thursday Night
Partly cloudy in the evening, then clear. Low of 64F. Winds from the South at 5 to 15 mph.

By Erin Floyd





The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a frost advisory, which is in effect from 4 am to 9 am CDT Monday. Lows tonight will reach the middle 30s and frost is likely to form across the area. Delicate vegetation may be damaged by the frost and should be protected.

A record low maximum temperature of 57 degrees was set at Dallas
Fort Worth today. This breaks the old record of 58 degrees set in
1952.
National Weather Service
I don't think WE will get that cold but we are in Denton county and it's included in the advisory. I think we will stay in the 40s. Which is good. I don't have plants to kill because I killed them all already (not on purpose).

Some models are saying that we are going to get some severe weather at the end of the week. It's a but too early to tell yet, but here's hopin'!

Sunday Night
Partly cloudy. Low of 43F. Cooler in lower lying areas. Winds from the East at 5 to 10 mph shifting to the South after midnight.

Monday
Partly cloudy in the morning, then clear. High of 68F. Winds less than 5 mph.

Monday Night
Clear in the evening, then partly cloudy. Low of 55F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday
Partly cloudy. High of 86F. Breezy. Winds from the South at 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy in the evening, then clear. Low of 61F. Winds from the South at 5 to 10 mph.

By Erin Floyd



It's Heerreee.. in my creepy little voice. Bring jackets to any outdoor event you have planned tomorrow though Saturday. You're going to need it. And ladies, or men with long hair, you might want to not wear it down. The winds are really supposed to kick up with this front, reaching up to 20mph.

By Erin Floyd



Ya'll asked for cooler weather... ya'll got it! If you ask me, anything below 60 is too cold. I'll be digging out my sweaters and jackets this weekend. I'm just glad I'm not living in Northern Minnesota anymore, where they are expecting another 6 inches of that crazy white stuff called snow! Tomorrow might just be the last time we will hit a comfortable 90 degrees this year.





Wednesday Night
Clear. Low of 63F. Winds from the SSE at 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday
Clear in the morning, then partly cloudy. High of 90F. Breezy. Winds from the South at 15 to 20 mph.

Thursday Night
Partly cloudy. Low of 72F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 15 mph.


Friday
Partly cloudy. High of 88F. Winds less than 5 mph.

Friday Night
Mostly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain after midnight. Low of 52F. Breezy. Winds from the NNE at 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

Saturday
Overcast with a chance of rain. High of 61F. Breezy. Winds from the NNE at 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20%.


Saturday Night
Overcast. Low of 45F. Breezy. Winds from the NNE at 10 to 20 mph.

Sunday
Mostly cloudy in the morning, then overcast. High of 68F. Winds from the NNE at 5 to 10 mph.


Sunday Night
Clear. Low of 48F. Winds less than 5 mph.